$37 across the six core bets only if each qualifies. Choose at most one $3 swing; keep at least $10 unused. The $2 Groveland bet replaces Who Dey.
Do not increase stakes to recover Friday’s losses. Price floors reflect judgment, not calibrated fair odds. A big payout by itself is not an edge.
Conditions that change the plan
Research observation: clear, about 70°F. Official fast dirt and good turf at the initial check.
Firm/good turf only. A softer course or a dirt rating other than fast pauses the listed bets. If early races reveal a clear speed advantage, downgrade the Okiro pace-collapse case; a few winners alone do not establish a track bias.
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
1:32 PM ET · 6f · DirtClosed before research
Race 2 Juvenile allowance
No pick issued after the start.
Research started after this race ran.
No recommended ticket.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: Not assessed prospectively.
What can beat the bet: No retrospective winning selection is added.
Leach#4 Never Sleep → #3 Never a Doubt → #1 Chancery
Plonk#1 Chancery → #4 Never Sleep → #6 Maker of Mischief
Nelson#1 Chancery → #4 Never Sleep → #6 Maker of Mischief
Solomon#4 Never Sleep → #5 Dormie → #1 Chancery
Select tip sheet#1 Chancery → #2 Game Sayayin → #6 Maker of Mischief
Ehalt & ShifmanNo selection reviewed
Horse
Morning
Tote
Scratch
#1 Chancery
8/5
—
#2 Game Sayayin
8/1
—
#3 Never a Doubt
6/1
—
#4 Never Sleep
5/1
—
#5 Dormie
4/1
—
#6 Maker of Mischief
3/1
—
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
2:04 PM ET · 1 3/16 miles · TurfPass
Race 3 Turf route allowance
Episist is my lean. Save the stake.
The field is too open for a strong position; Tulip is a vulnerable short-priced favorite.
#5 No live quote · 6/1 morning line
No recommended ticket.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: Tulip’s outside draw complicates her attempt to control the pace.
What can beat the bet: Four panelists choose four different winners. This analysis was completed around scheduled post; no ticket is offered.
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
2:36 PM ET · 6½f · DirtSelective
Race 4 Optional claiming sprint
C K Wonder, only at 2/1 or better.
Recent 6½-furlong form and a local win give him a sounder case than chasing a big price here.
#3 No live quote · 5/2 morning line
My wager
#3 C K Wonder to win
$4.00 total · key horse 2/1+Checking race status.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: Autodrive, Floodlites and Durante can contest the lead; C K Wonder must settle behind them.
What can beat the bet: Lips Say Bliss is scratched. That removes the main closer, but does not prove the remaining speed gets an easy trip.
Hazelton#2 Floodlites → #3 C K Wonder → #4 Durante
Leach#3 C K Wonder → #2 Floodlites → #6 Lips Say Bliss (SCR)
Plonk#3 C K Wonder → #2 Floodlites → #4 Durante
Nelson#4 Durante → #2 Floodlites → #3 C K Wonder
Solomon#6 Lips Say Bliss (SCR) → #3 C K Wonder
Select tip sheet#2 Floodlites → #3 C K Wonder → #1 Autodrive
Ehalt & ShifmanNo selection reviewed
Horse
Morning
Tote
Scratch
#1 Autodrive
9/2
—
#2 Floodlites
7/5
—
#3 C K Wonder
5/2
—
#4 Durante
6/1
—
#5 Touch of Destiny
30/1
—
#6 Lips Say Bliss
7/2
SCR
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
3:08 PM ET · 1⅛ miles · DirtSelective
Race 5 Optional claiming route
Who Dey at 4/1+. Groveland is the small alternative.
Who Dey’s consistency is the stronger base case. Groveland needs a much better price to justify his weaker form.
#10 No live quote · 4/1 morning line
My wager
#10 Who Dey to win
$4.00 total · key horse 4/1+Checking race status.
Small alternative
#5 Groveland to win
$2.00 total · key horse 20/1+Checking race status.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: First Resort could control a modest tempo after two withdrawals.
What can beat the bet: Who Dey can place without winning. Groveland’s last race was pace-compromised, but today’s class is still a test. Choose one.
Select tip sheet#10 Who Dey → #4 Stowaway → #3 First Resort
Ehalt & ShifmanNo selection reviewed
Horse
Morning
Tote
Scratch
#1 Urban Planner
12/1
—
#2 Render Judgment
7/2
SCR
#3 First Resort
8/1
—
#4 Stowaway
6/1
—
#5 Groveland
20/1
—
#6 Copper Missile
20/1
—
#7 Archie the Giza
10/1
—
#8 Can't Hush This
30/1
SCR
#9 Bullard
5/2
—
#10 Who Dey
4/1
—
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
3:40 PM ET · 5½f · TurfSelective
Race 6 Woodford · G2
Okiro at 10/1+. A small pace bet.
He has run competitively against the main speed horses and could benefit if they overdo it early.
#5 No live quote · 12/1 morning line
My wager
#5 Okiro to win
$3.00 total · key horse 10/1+Checking race status.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: Joe Shiesty, Doncho and Mondogetsbuckets give the late runners a plausible setup.
What can beat the bet: Nobals is scratched. Motorious and My Boy Prince can also benefit from a duel; Okiro is not the only closer.
Plonk#10 Doncho → #8 My Boy Prince → #6 Joe Shiesty
Nelson#10 Doncho → #6 Joe Shiesty → #3 No Nay Hudson
Solomon#5 Okiro → #10 Doncho → #7 Motorious
Select tip sheet#6 Joe Shiesty → #10 Doncho → #8 My Boy Prince
Ehalt & Shifman#7 Motorious → #6 Joe Shiesty → #8 My Boy Prince → #10 Doncho
Horse
Morning
Tote
Scratch
#1 Script
20/1
—
#2 Mondogetsbuckets
15/1
—
#3 No Nay Hudson
8/1
—
#4 Nobals
15/1
SCR
#5 Okiro
12/1
—
#6 Joe Shiesty
5/2
—
#7 Motorious
4/1
—
#8 My Boy Prince
5/1
—
#9 Its Bourbon Thirty
20/1
—
#10 Doncho
7/2
—
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
4:12 PM ET · 6½f · DirtPriority
Race 7 Thoroughbred Club of America · G2
Echo Sound at 3/1+. My dirt preference.
She has a local win and a credible case to improve in her third start after a layoff.
#7 No live quote · 5/2 morning line
My wager
#7 Echo Sound to win
$8.00 total · key horse 3/1+Checking race status.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: She can track the leaders rather than needing to win an early duel.
What can beat the bet: Eclatant’s best form can win; Evanescence is a serious local threat. Pass if Echo Sound’s price is squeezed.
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
4:44 PM ET · 1 mile · TurfPriority
Race 8 First Lady · G1
Lush Lips at 8/1+. My first choice for value.
A prep after her layoff and proven Keeneland form give her a credible rebound case.
#2 No live quote · 8/1 morning line
My wager
#2 Lush Lips to win
$10.00 total · key horse 8/1+Checking race status.
Pace: Stalking the Casse speed is preferable to repeating her last front-running trip.
What can beat the bet: This is a deep field. Bernier rates her around 8/1 fair odds, so the bullish case is disputed. An 8/1 quote is my entry floor, not a proven overlay.
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
5:16 PM ET · 1 1/16 miles · DirtPass
Race 9 Breeders’ Futurity · G1
Coach Pope is likeliest. Pass the short price.
He has more route experience than the other leading juveniles.
#1 No live quote · 4/5 morning line
No recommended ticket.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: His rail draw gives him a chance to secure position without covering extra ground.
What can beat the bet: Q B Rocket and American History can improve sharply. A logical favorite is not automatically a worthwhile wager.
Hazelton#2 Q B Rocket → #1 Coach Pope → #6 American History
Leach#1 Coach Pope → #2 Q B Rocket → #6 American History
Plonk#1 Coach Pope → #6 American History → #2 Q B Rocket
Nelson#1 Coach Pope → #2 Q B Rocket → #6 American History
Solomon#1 Coach Pope → #2 Q B Rocket → #5 Jaded
Select tip sheet#2 Q B Rocket → #1 Coach Pope → #6 American History
Ehalt & Shifman#1 Coach Pope → #2 Q B Rocket → #6 American History
Horse
Morning
Tote
Scratch
#1 Coach Pope
4/5
—
#2 Q B Rocket
2/1
—
#3 Phone Booth
12/1
—
#4 Title Worthy
20/1
—
#5 Jaded
15/1
—
#6 American History
4/1
—
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
5:48 PM ET · 1 mile · TurfPriority
Race 10 Coolmore Turf Mile · G1
Lake Forest at 3/1+. Demand the price.
His recent European Group 1 form makes the strongest class case in this field.
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
6:20 PM ET · 6f · DirtPass
Race 11 Juvenile maiden
Rapagna is my watch horse. No pre-race wager.
The debut trainer profile and preparation are interesting, but the evidence is too thin for a strong bet.
#10 No live quote · 8/1 morning line
No recommended ticket.
Pace, risks, experts & field
Pace: A field dominated by first starters makes the early shape unreliable.
What can beat the bet: Rock Your Dreams is scratched; Speightful Moon draws in. I would need paddock and late-market evidence before changing this pass.
Hazelton#5 Stars in My Eyes → #10 Rapagna → #9 Clock
Leach#10 Rapagna → #7 Pastya → #3 Rock Your Dreams (SCR)
Plonk#10 Rapagna → #1 Niosa → #9 Clock
Nelson#1 Niosa → #11 Life On Marz → #10 Rapagna
Solomon#10 Rapagna → #7 Pastya → #3 Rock Your Dreams (SCR)
Select tip sheet#9 Clock → #3 Rock Your Dreams (SCR) → #7 Pastya
Ehalt & ShifmanNo selection reviewed
Horse
Morning
Tote
Scratch
#1 Niosa
5/1
—
#2 Right in Time
9/2
—
#3 Rock Your Dreams
3/1
SCR
#4 Ronna's Sizzler
20/1
—
#5 Stars in My Eyes
12/1
—
#6 Neuromap
20/1
—
#7 Pastya
6/1
—
#8 Liam's Lucky Lass
20/1
—
#9 Clock
12/1
—
#10 Rapagna
8/1
—
#11 Life On Marz
12/1
—
#12 Nu Why Me
20/1
—
#13 Speightful MoonDrawn in
30/1
—
#14 Joy of LifeAlso-eligible
6/1
SCR
#15 PalestraAlso-eligible
8/1
SCR
#16 Won'tcatchmecryanAlso-eligible
15/1
SCR
Published opinions are shown as reviewed, including withdrawals. Multiple pieces by the same analyst count as one opinion. Source prose contains occasional name/race errors; official program numbers control.
Your plan
$0.00 planned / $50.00 loss limit. No wagers are placed by this page.
Start with the priority opinions that clear their price floors. Leave the rest alone.
What Friday taught us
The previous page offered 40 race bets plus two Pick 4s. That encouraged too much exposure and made narrow exact-order tickets look more defensible than the evidence supported.
Hymn, the headline selection, was scratched. Fast Gun and Should’ve were withdrawn too. Missing horses in the tote feed were not reliably treated as scratches; today uses the official dated changes list and keeps known withdrawals blocked.
Kingside and Michael’s Cove won. Heartbeat and Master Queen finished second, so keying them only on top missed. Emphatic won below our posted 5/1 entry floor. These results are not a claim about your profit; we do not have your placed tickets.
Today’s change is selective exposure and clearer decisions: win bets first, passes when evidence is thin, and one small optional swing. No automatic replacement of a scratched horse.
Saturday’s dated entries, all four panelists, Select tip sheet, Ehalt/Shifman, original analysis by Plonk, Leach, Solomon and Starr, and Bernier’s competing First Lady price assessment were reviewed. Full past-performance files and race replays were not independently audited. Historical meet statistics inform questions; they do not establish today’s edge.
Races 1–2 had already run when research began. No retrospective picks are issued. Fixed picks remain editorial opinions; odds, weather, scratches and surfaces refresh every 30 seconds while visible. Future-race tote quotes can still resemble the morning line; reassess near post. Projected prices never activate a ticket.